MarketTrak's Forecast of the SP500

SP500 Forecast Summary

  Last Forecast Page Update:  Wednesday, 08/21/19 20:02 MDT

  Stock Market Closing Data Entered for Date:  Wednesday, 08/21/19

  1-Day Network Model Trading Position for Thursday LONG

  Network Model ANO Value:  0.1581    [ version 48.0 since 08/18/2019 ]

  Long Position Setpoint:  0.100       Short Position Setpoint:  -0.100

  SP500 Close:  2924.43       SP500 Trailing Stop Setpoint:  2778.21

  5-, 10-, and 15-day network model ANO values and trends:    + 0.24      + 0.18      + 0.69  

  Swing Trade Model Forecasts with Signal Trends:

      DJIA [DIA]:  LONG   ,     SP500 [SPY]:  LONG   ,     NASDAQ 100 [QQQ]:  LONG  


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The neural network model remains long for trading on Thursday. Keep tight stops. All three swing trade models are now long.

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There are three long-term SP500 network forecast models in addition to the 1-day model. Their ANO values and ANO trend arrows are shown above. Because the forecast is a prediction of the forward slope, we should see a delay in the expected change in index prices. The delay is about one-half of the forecast horizon days away. This means that if the 10-day model goes negative today, we would expect the market to turn down in about 5 days. The long term models are experimental and are presented here for information purposes only. Their accuracy, which varies considerably over time, is usually greater than 60 percent based on a 90 day average. Click here for more information on how the long-term forecasts are defined.

There are three swing trade models. One for the SP500, one for the DJIA, and another for the NASDAQ 100. The results of the forecast analysis of these three are shown above. Currently, these models will only be either long or in cash. This will change in the future. The swing trade model is quite different from the neural network model used to make the four SP500 network forecasts. The swing trade model is based on a decision table paradigm whereas the network model is based on a neural network architecture. A genetic programming algorithm is used to create a neural network. An evolutionary programming algorithm is used to create a decision table. The network model is a numerical calculation while the decision table is more logical than numerical. The swing trade model trades less frequently than a network model and its signal may lag the market by a day or two. The network model will anticipate a change in market direction. The network model will do better in a volatile market while the swing trade model will do better in a trending market.

This forecast is updated each day before 3:00 PM MT leaving at least three hours for after-hours trading.

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About the Forecast:    We use an advanced neural network forecast model and an evolutionary training algorithm to forecast the direction of the SP500 over the next trading day. The output of the forecast model (ANO) is a numerical value that ranges from minus one (-1.0) to plus one (+1.0), with -1.0 being a very strong indication that the market will close DOWN the next trading day and +1.0 being a very strong indication that the market will close UP the next trading day. A value near zero would indicate a neutral or flat market. We translate this output into a long, short, or cash trading position for the SP500 Spiders (symbol SPY) or the Dow Diamonds (symbol DIA). The position is determined from the current ANO value and setpoints which are shown in the Summary above. When the ANO rises above the long setpoint, a long position is given. When the ANO falls below the short setpoint, a short position is given. A cash position is indicated when the ANO lies between these two points. A five percent trailing stop is specified to reduce risk when either a long or short position is indicated. The forecast is updated after the session close and is usually posted here before 3:00 PM MT. Because of the timing of the update, trades may be made in the extended sessions or at open of the next trading day. Results for the last 165 trading days are shown in the two charts below. The vertical grid lines in these charts are 10 trading days apart. This forecast when properly combined with other technical and fundamental indicators may help you in your investment decisions. Please read our disclaimer below.

Model Results:   The results of our model calculations for the last 165 trading days are shown in the two charts below:

The different color regions in the first chart correspond to the three possible trading positions. The second chart shows the trading positions as determined by the forecast model.

Performance Data:  Performance of the forecast model is shown in the table below. The results are edited for three time periods. The first column of data shows results since the beginning of this year (Y-T-D). The second column of data shows results for the last 165 trading days, and the third column shows results for the last 45 trading days or about the last two months. The drawdown is the maximum drop in any position's value during the total days shown. The table below and the charts above show totally blind results. These results may include previous model versions. Page Top

Forecast Model Performance
 165 Days
45 Days
 Buy and hold return
  16.66 percent
  24.39 percent
  0.23 percent
 Forecast model return
  12.10 percent
  14.57 percent
  -2.13 percent
 Max model drawdown
  2.98 percent
  2.98 percent
  2.98 percent
 Total stops
 Days long
 Days cash
 Days short
 Trading days

Model Output Data:  The table below shows the results of calculations using our neural network forecast model. The data in the table were computed by averaging the results of more than 200 networks trained on 7200 days of stock market data.

Forecast Model Output (Last 15 trading days)

     Date      SP500      ANO      LONG     SHORT     CASH    POS
    190801    2953.56    0.0437    52.00    48.00     0.00    CASH   
    190802    2932.05    0.1654    58.00    42.00     0.00    LONG   
    190805    2844.74   -0.0146    49.00    51.00     0.00    CASH   
    190806    2881.77    0.1647    58.00    42.00     0.00    LONG   
    190807    2883.98   -0.0086    49.00    51.00     0.00    CASH   
    190808    2938.09    0.0471    52.00    48.00     0.00    CASH   
    190809    2918.65    0.2284    61.00    39.00     0.00    LONG   
    190812    2882.70    0.1492    57.00    43.00     0.00    LONG   
    190813    2926.32    0.1023    55.00    45.00     0.00    LONG   
    190814    2840.60    0.1157    55.00    45.00     0.00    LONG   
    190815    2847.60    0.1089    55.00    45.00     0.00    LONG   
    190816    2888.68    0.1657    58.00    42.00     0.00    LONG   
    190819    2923.65    0.0483    52.00    48.00     0.00    CASH   
    190820    2900.51    0.1667    58.00    42.00     0.00    LONG   
    190821    2924.43    0.1581    57.00    43.00     0.00    LONG   

    DATE is the date of the data entry,
    SP500 is the closing SP500 value for the date shown,
    ANO is the Average Network Output (see our model details),
    LONG is the percent of networks indicating a long position,
    SHORT is the percent of networks indicating a short position,
    CASH is the percent of networks indicating a cash position,
    POS is the trading position at the close.

Disclaimer:  Our models are experimental and can change at any time. You may use our forecast as long as you totally agree with the following terms and conditions: Our mission is to make our forecast the best available, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or profitability. We provide the forecast on an “as is” and “as available” basis without any warrantee of any kind. Specifically, MarketTrak disclaims any and all warranties, expressed or implied, including without limitation warranties of merchantability, profitability, and fitness for a particular purpose. In no event shall you hold MarketTrak liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, punitive, or consequential damages of any kind whatsoever. You bear full responsibility for your own investment research and investment decisions. Nothing in our forecasts should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security, or to take any specific action. The opinions or comments expressed may change without notice. You determine if and how the forecast is used in your investments. You recognize that past performance does not indicate future results. Click here for a complete disclosure of our disclaimer. Page Top

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