MarketTrak Question/Comment Message

Posted By: Roy   Date: Sat Sep 22, 2007

Title: model 7

  I'm not acquainted with model 7. You changed from 5.3 to 8.2 in 6/23 so I'm assuming it is one you haven't thought well enough of to use but it seems to have done right well and if I'm reading the chart right would have kept us out of this last short position. I hate to display my ignorance on a public board but as you know I still don't understand how the actual slope can end on 8/30 instead of 9/21 and the 15 day predicted slope ends 9/21 instead of 10/12 so I may not be reading it right. Could you expound on the former for me.

  Version 7 is turning out to be quite accurate. It is based on a model that I developed several years ago. The network input representation and internal functions are quite different from those used in the other versions. If it continues to do well, it will become the standard.

  The forward slope is discussed on the About web page. Basically, the forward slope is computed from a linear least-squares analysis of the next 15 closing DJIA values. The forward slope from today will not be known until 15 trading days from now. The forecast model predicts what this slope will be. The prediction is the value of the ANO, also discussed on the About page.

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