MarketTrak Question/Comment Message


Posted By: Roy   Date: Fri Jan 18, 2008

Title: confusing

Message:
  I was looking at the printout I did at the end of last week and noticing how version 7 was above 0 and nowhere near short and that was the 5-day forward prediction for tomorrow 1/18. Now, in the last 2 or 3 days you have changed the rules and say that 7 has been short for 2 or 3 days. That reminds me of a game of hopscotch I played with my nephew 29 years ago. He knew the rules but I didn't and when I thought I was doing pretty good he would remind me I had broken a rule and had to go back to start. I'm getting a similar feeling I got then, it's almost impossible to win. I'm not trading on 7 but all this sure causes a muddy quandry of uncertainty.

Response:

Roy,

I have not changed the rules. I really don't know what you mean. Below are results from the version 7 model. The trading parameters are the same as for version 10. This data is a little difficult to read off the graph that is shown on the forecast page.

  DATE    DJIA        ANO 
 071227  13359.01   0.0012204 
 071228  13365.87   0.0009630 
 071231  13264.82   0.0005446 
 080102  13043.96   0.0002576 
 080103  13056.72  -0.0001991 
 080104  12800.18  -0.0006595 
 080107  12827.49  -0.0006594 
 080108  12589.07  -0.0004560 
 080109  12735.31  -0.0003973 
 080110  12853.09  -0.0003896 
 080111  12606.30  -0.0006858 
 080114  12778.15  -0.0021382 
 080115  12501.11  -0.0024859 
 080116  12466.16  -0.0026614 
 080117  12159.21  -0.0020768 

As you can see from the data above, the trading model first went short on January 11 since on January 4 (five days previous) the ANO went below -0.0005.

Hope this helps,

Rich

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