Response:
Interesting question. Below are the results. Please note that the networks
were trained over all but the last 200 days, so the data presented may not be
meaningful. The analyses were done for the last 1000 trading days. The start
date is: February 27, 2004.
Long, cash, and
short Results
Model Return: 2.69 (169 percent
increase)
num of longs: 24
num of shorts: 17
num of stops: 0
days long: 472
days short: 258
days cash: 270
total days: 1000
max drawdown: 3.10 percent
Long and cash Results
Model Return: 1.80 (80 percent
increase)
num of longs: 24
num of shorts: 0
num of stops: 0
days long: 472
days short: 0
days cash: 528
total days: 1000
max drawdown: 3.10 percent
Buy and hold return:
1.16 (16 percent increase)
As you can see, short positions
played an important role. Being very conservative, I always set tight
stops when being short.
Rich
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