Using the Dow or DIA currently at 121.97, I want to sell a March 125 Put
at 4.00 which is approximately the going rate at 9.35 am EST today. What are
the odds percentage wise that the DIA will close above 125.00 on March 21, 2008?
This is what I was trying to learn in the previous question yesterday. I am trying
to concretize my question to get a concrete answer.
Our model does not say anything about where the market will be on that
date. Our signal may change several times before your option expires. The signal
currently looks like it is moving towards a long position which would favor your
short put position. But that could change. I suggest you read our About page
for details on what we forecast.