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 MarketTrak Question/Comment Message

Posted By: Hersh   Date: Mon Apr 21, 2008

Title: Signal Inversion

  Has the signal ever "inverted." For example trading with cycle periods, every so often (perhaps 1 in 5 times) the cycle "inverts". An expected low becomes a top or vice versa, and the present trend extends into the new inverted top/bottom. There is no way to recognize it except by hindsight after we've gone through it. From that point forward the cycle may have shifted 1/2 cycle or sometimes reverts back to its prior periodicity. In any case, this is an example of what I am referring to. Has your system ever "inverted" this way, so that the top we're expecting in this time range doesn't occur?

  I have never seen that happen. The model has made incorrect forecasts but I never attributed that to an inversion. Click here to see a long-term comparison of actual and predicted forecasts.

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