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 MarketTrak Question/Comment Message


Posted By: David   Date: Wed Jul 9, 2008

Title: New models should reflect old results

Message:
  I appreciate your ongoing efforts to improve the system. However, in my, and I emphasize my opinion, the posted returns should take into account the real time trading results. Constantly changing the system while posting the results of the latest system instead of posting the cumulative results of the various systems, simply adds to skepticism of current and future subscribers. I don't mean to offend you since I am actually impressed with your knowledge and system design skills. I'm only trying to be frank which seems to be in short supply in the world today.
 
  David

Response:
David,

  This has been a concern of mine as well. The question is just how do you accumulate returns from different models. The previous model had a return of about 10 percent in 90 days. Should I start this new model with a 10 percent gain? That might be misleading since this new model might not do as well as the previous one, but it would look initially like it was. My solution at this time is to include a link to the last forecast made with the previous model so you can see how it did. Since the models are similar, you could assume some continuity of returns.

Rich

 

 

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