Posted By: Rolf   Date: Tue Aug 12, 2008

Title: Development Model

Message:
  I appreciate your transparency of models down the road. May I suggest that you publish the results of the development model (at least the graph) one per week such that we can judge using both models?
 
  If you mention the new model takes commodity prices more into account, does this mean that market dynamic mechanisms have changed? How do you deal with future changes of the dynamics?
 
  Rolf

Response:

  Rolf

  I plan to update the chart daily until I make a decision on the model change. If the current model turns out to be correct, then I plan to keep it as the standard.

  I don't mean to imply that the market dynamics have changed. Both models see the commodity data. They just seem to place a different emphasis on the large drop in commodity prices. If for some reason there was a fundamental change in the market behavior, the model may or may not correct for it. I have no way of knowing. Nets created after such a change should learn how to deal with it, however. I have several computers running continuously creating new nets and a behavioral shift may show up in the statistical studies that are done.

 Rich