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 MarketTrak Question/Comment Message


Posted By: Richard   Date: Sat Oct 25, 2008

Title: Key signal error

Message:
  Is there one key indicator that has caused the recent malfunction of the model.
 
  When do you expect you will have something cleaner.
 

Response:
  The indicator most used by the networks is the MSI and this index is in the super safe region for stocks. Also, the market is extremely oversold. When these two conditions existed in the past, the market rallied. Clearly, the model has given too much importance to these.

  I am working on several possible fixes. Adding more fundamental data inputs helps but it is not the solution. I am working on modifying the fitness function used by the genetic algorithm to force the networks to more effectively use all of the input data. I expect to have an update in a few weeks.

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