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 MarketTrak Question/Comment Message


Posted By: Frank   Date: Fri Mar 20, 2009

Title: Version 25 problems

Message:
  I don't like the zero delay forecast. It's practically impossible to reach the perf figures of this model since you can't trade it as the model predicts. Example, market closes, 1 hour later model says next day's close is up. There was no position held. The market may have moved in this 1 hour considerably up. Next days open may be the high of the day.
 Maybe you could run the model 1 hour before market close (or how long it takes) and post preliminary results to follow so one can make a setup trade just before market close.

Response:
  Frank, You are not the first person to raise this concern. I would like to compute the forecast sooner; however, the model uses end-of-day data and that is not available until about one hour after the market closes. Using data one hour before the market closes could produce the wrong forecast as the market usually changes a great deal in this last hour.

 The other option is to stay with version 21. I'm seriously thinking of doing this since I am getting a lot of subscribers asking me to do so. Version 21 has done a good job and it is only slightly less accurate than version 25. I will make a decision later today.

 Thanks for your input.

 Rich

Thursday, March 26 Update:  We have concluded that version 25 is much more accurate than version 21 and will therefore switch to it this weekend.

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