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 MarketTrak Question/Comment Message


Posted By: Roy   Date: Wed May 20, 2009

Title: cycle analysis

Message:
  Did you use the 600 day input on this one and if so how did it come out like the 300 day? These are very drastic changes from down to up and back down. It seems a few tweaks and you can make it read anything you want, to the point that I wonder if it is worthwhile. I haven’t printed any of these but did these changes change anything but the last 20 days? I don't use this but it does play with your mind.
 

Response:
  The latest chart was created with a fit of 400 days. The results are sensitive to the number of days used and the number of sine and cosine functions included in the model. Because of the large amount computer time needed for back testing, it has taken longer than I originally thought to settle down on the best set of values.

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