MarketTrak Question/Comment Message


Posted By: Mike   Date: Tue Mar 25, 2014

Title: Version 30 Pegasus three model ANO

Message:
  You mentioned the average accuracy rate for the three models is just over 58% using version 29's Excalibur framework and you are in the process of rewriting the software to version 30 Pegasus which was found to be more accurate. What type of average accuracy rate are you looking to achieve or will be achieving with the new version 30 Pegasus 5, 10, and 15 day model ANO value and trends?

Response:
  I don't have final numbers yet but my tests show better accuracy for all three. I recently completed the 5-day model using the Pegasus framework and accuracy is around 64 percent but I expect this to improve as I continue to build the forecast library of networks.

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